Scenario generation

  Exemplary Scenarios for German Final Energy Demand 2050 Copyright: © IAEW

As defossilisation and decarbonization of the energy system continues and sector coupling increases, previous energy demand scenarios with a focus on the electricity sector are no longer sufficient. Instead, consistent, cross-sectoral scenarios for the demand development for energy carriers and forms such as electricity, hydrogen, methane, liquid fuels and heat are increasingly necessary. Such scenarios allow, on the one hand, the analysis of demand development and its main influencing factors. On the other hand, these scenarios are elementary input data for a large number of simulation tools. These include integrated electricity and gas network planning, European Energy System Planning and cross-sectoral energy system operation. For most of the studies relevant in this context, the scenarios need to cover a time horizon up to 2050 in hourly resolution. Depending on the investigated problem, a spatial resolution down to the transmission node level or low-voltage node level is necessary in addition to a wide geographical scope, covering individual low-voltage networks or the entire European interconnected system. In order to determine different development paths of the demand for energy carriers and energy forms as well as the temporal and geographical distribution of these demands, IAEW has developed and constantly improves tools and methods for scenario generation, which are regularly applied to scientific questions in studies and industrial projects.